Single Family Home Values Down a Little

The Case Shiller Value Analysis for October was published today with South Florida single family values dropping about .25%.  Values dropped in all but one of the markets (Washington, DC) surveyed by the analysis.  It looks like values in this analysis will fall about 5% this year in our market.

Thinking of Becoming a Landlord?

Owners who are upside-down and investors eyeing lower real estate prices will often consider renting property as an immediate strategy.  Here's a great article anyone considering becoming a landlord should read.

http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/article.cfm?p=1&id=268339

Home Values Dip

South Florida followed suit with what you're hearing about home values in the rest of the country. Prices on single family homes in our market dropped 1.56% in September according to the latest report of the Case Shiller Index.  Softening of reported value for "high-tier" properties (more-expensive) drove the overall decline.

More Short Sales than Foreclosure Sales in September

I'm currently working with three short sale transactions (and about to add a fourth).  Clearly they are challenging for all parties involved but are a major factor in this market and with hard work and patience, can end in a successful sale.  I've been tracking the short sale & foreclosure market since January 2009.  Much has been made of the constriction of foreclosures in light of  'robo-sign' practices of processors and the number of transactions has been in flux, but I was surprised to find that the number of short sales actually exceeded foreclosure sales in September for the first time.

Single Family Home Value Down a Tad

Case Shiller value index for August was released this morning.  Value in South Florida dropped slightly led by decline in the higher-tier (more "expensive") homes.

Save $40,000!!

For some perspective on today's mortgage rate news; a home buyer borrowing $180,000 at today's rate would save $40,000 in interest over the life of the loan, compared with the same loan at 5% (the rate just six months ago).  Monthly payments would be about $100 cheaper too.

There would be no iphone without Broward County

While the "whole world" was waiting breathlessly for the announcement of the latest iphone; an engineering firm in SUNRISE, FL was churning out components for the new device.  http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2011/09/13/slideshow-when-iphone-5s-coming.html?s=print

"Lower Value" Homes Still Dropping
As we observe an overall increase in value of single family homes in South Florida, it is interesting to note, in an analysis of the tiered pricing study provided by the Index, that lower-priced homes are not contributing to the increase.  The index defines a 'low priced' home in our market as under $144,203.  As the attached chart shows, homes in that tier continue to decline while the middle and upper tiers rebound.

Clearly sellers of homes in that range should not 'test the market' but price their properties to secure a buyer as quickly as possible.

South Florida Home Values Up Too

Case Shiller Index results for July were released this morning.  South Florida follows the national trend with single family home values increasing  1.21% in that month.  July's number brings us to just about the break-even point for the year (i.e. no change in value for the year) which is an accomplishment after the disappointing numbers, we experienced earlier this year, suggested a drop in value in 2011.

Home Values Up Again

Single family home values rose again in June for the second month this year according to the Case Shiller Value Analysis.  Values in South Florida increased .62% in June after a 1.18% percent rise in May.  Based on the index, values decreased 2.54% in the first half of the year. 

Our Attorney General is on the Wrong Side of this Matter
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinion/editorials/bondi-picks-the-wrong-side-1688749.html

May was a Good Month for Home Value

The Case Shiller Value Analysis released this morning reported that May was a good month for home value.  Twenty of the US metropolitan areas included in the study registered increases with South Florida in the pack at UP 1.18%.

High-Priced Homes Drove Value Increase in May
The Case Shiller Value Analysis presents single family home values in tiers based on a price break calculation they identify as Low, Medium and High.  I've charted the last couple of years on the attached chart for South Florida (Miami & Ft Lauderdale).  This shows that the 1.18% aggregate increase in values was driven by strong value increases in higher priced homes (those over $249,104) while lower priced homes actually declined just a bit.

Pompano Beach Condo Sale Confirms Values are Increasing

I am pleased to announce the sale of our listing, unit 1206 in the Waterbury Condo for $213,000.  This remodeled 2 bedroom/2 bath unit at 1180 square feet ($180.50/square foot) is the highest sale in the building in two years.  The condo was impeccably maintained and the kitchen had been remodeled in the last three years. The limited number of homes available to the buyers drove this sale.

If you’re a seller waiting for a more favorable time to list and sell your property, NOW IS THE TIME.  The buyer pool is still smaller than we would like to see it and it is the limited number of choices that resulted in the sale I’m reporting here.  As the market stabilizes sellers who have been holding off will jump into the market and the inventory will increase.  List now while your property is the only game in town.  Call me today to initiate a plan to get your property sold.

The Bottom of the Real Estate Market

In a great article on the South Florida economy in this morning’s Miami Herald, Octavio Hernandez, President of US Century Bank was quoted: “In the last two months, we have seen a lot of activity” from distressed-asset buyers, “I think people have realized prices have pretty much dropped as far as they’re going to”.   This suggests that ‘vulture investors’ have concluded that now is the time to enter the market before values begin their slow climb.  Obviously this is a great indication for buyers to get serious about investing in real estate but sellers too should take this opportunity to list now to take advantage of the reduced inventory and buyer urgency to make their move.   

South Florida Housing Value History

Each April I capture an annualized value measurement based on the Case Shiller Value Index for Miami/Fort Lauderdale.  As you can see, 2010-2011 is not measuring up as well as the previous year.  The bumpy bottom of the market is taking a bit of a downward turn this year; further evidence to the complete unpredictability of the market.  Another thing this chart presents is the unprecedented nature of the recent market boom/bust (just in case we needed to see it depicted another way).

Home Values Down Again...but just a 'Little'
The Case Shiller value index for April was published today.  National results were a bit less dire than the last month reported with a few cities experiencing an increase in value.  In South Florida the monthly decline was just under one-quarter of one percent; better than the .81% decline in February.

Values are still disappointing in 2011 compared to last year which will be documented in my next post...the one you've been waiting for folks; the annual 'appreciation' measurement I take each April.  How's that for a teaser?

Case Shiller Value Index-Better than Last Month

So here's the rest of the story after you've listened to the news reports on the Case Shiller Home Value Index figures released this morning.  The media are reporting a downward trend in values throughout the country but the results in South Florida are a bit more encouraging.  While we experienced a decline in the month of March (the most recent month reported by the Index) the rate of decline was FAR less alarming than last month (0.84% in March vs. 2.02% in February).  I'm still inclined to view February's drop as an anomaly (let's hope anyway) so based on our first quarter performance values may decline anywhere from 5.5% to 16.5% in 2011.  If we split the difference that's around 11%.  Now statistics NEVER lie somehow it feels like we're not going to have another decline of over 10% this year.  Prices in the more desirable areas (near the ocean & in great school districts) seem to be stabilizing, especially where the inventory of homes for sale is tight.  I'm anxious to see what the next few months' performance is like to turn around the disappointing numbers from the first quarter.

Foreclosure News
The news reports today tout significantly lower foreclosures in April than the same period a year ago.  It's difficult to determine if this suggests improvement in the market or other factors.  The following tidbit from the Miami Herald might provide some insight:
   In Florida, it now takes an average of 619 days—about 20 months—for the foreclosure process to run its course. That’s up from 470 days last year, and 169 days in 2007.

In case you ever wondered if anyone responsible for the lending debacle of last decade would be called to account.....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-sues-deutsche-bank-alleging-mortgage-fraud/2011/05/03/AFfym4iF_print.html

Pretty Steep Drop in Single Family Home Values

The Case-Shiller Value Analysis for February was published today (remember that this analysis "seasons" its data to give ample time for county records to be updated).  The month-over-month decline in value (at -2.02%) is the sharpest since April of 2009.  This could very well be explained by an increase in foreclosure sales backlogged by the 'robo-signing' revelation made late last year.  Foreclosure and short sale transactions in the Multiple Listing Service were about 6% higher than normal in January and February.  I'll be waiting with bated breath (as I'm sure the readers of this humble blog will be) to see if values stabilize next month.

Condos
Interesting article in today's Miami Herald about the condo market in the area and the strategy a major developer is following:
 Miami’s top condominium developer is planning to emerge from the region’s worst housing bust by picking up where it left off before the economy tanked, and building a shiny new condo tower.   The Related Group, which built more than 15,000 South Florida condos during the housing boom, then found itself fighting off insolvency when the recession hit, is seeking city approval for a new 35-story condo building in Brickell.   Related is set to go before Miami’s Planning, Zoning and Appeals Board on Wednesday to pitch its new project, to be built at 30 SE Sixth St.   Related’s subsidiary, TRG Brickell Station, originally received approval to use that site for a project called “Brickell Station,” in 2006. That condo tower, stalled because of the downturn, was planned to be nearly 600 feet tall, with 232 residences stacked on top of a parking garage.   The new plan scraps the 10-level parking garage, dropping the building’s height to 350 feet, and offers a new name: “My Brickell.” The expected dates for groundbreaking and completion are not listed in the application, and Related executives did not respond to requests for comment.   “To see Related and others move forward to build towers doesn’t surprise me, because it’s an arduous process,” said Peter Zalewski, a principal at CondoVultures, a Bal Harbour-based consultancy. “If you assume that construction takes 18 to 24 months, you start to look at roughly a 2014 delivery. I don’t know that that’s going to make sense two years from now, but if Related were able to build a tower without parking, they’d be able to reduce their costs tremendously.”   Zalewski added that of 22,000 new condos built in downtown Miami since 2003, about 3,200, or 14 percent, remain unsold.

 Lauderdale firm buys troubled mortgages: 


More insight into how this mortgage-mess will be resolved.  In the Sun-Sentinel this morning:


Fort Lauderdale-based private equity firm US Debt Ventures has purchased a pool of troubled mortgages with a face value of $500 million from an unidentified major bank, the firm announced Monday.   The firm bought a pool of about 7,000 first, second and third liens on mortgages across the nation. US Debt Ventures did not disclose how much it paid for the pool of loans, or which bank it purchased from. The seller was described in a release as “one of the five largest financial institutions.”   The company has plans for more bulk deals in 2011 and 2012, said Jamie Zambrana, director of acquisitions and analytics.

Florida Supreme Court May Reshape Foreclosure Proceses (watch this one!)




GREENACRES, Fla. – April 18, 2011 – A South Florida homeowner who alleges the mortgage foreclosure action against him was tainted by fraudulent paperwork will have his case reviewed by the Florida Supreme Court, in a closely watched action that could reshape state law.

The 4th District Court of Appeal had asked the state’s high court to decide the case as matter of “great public importance.” The Supreme Court agreed to hear the case in an order issued Friday.

Legal experts say the case, Roman Pino vs. The Bank of New York Mellon, could result in changes in foreclosure cases where there is evidence of fraud in the way documents were handled by lenders, mortgage servicers and law firms.

“Many, many mortgage foreclosures appear tainted with suspect documents,” the appeals court in West Palm Beach wrote.

If the case is decided in favor of Pino, a resident of Greenacres in Palm Beach County, the ruling could affect thousands of foreclosures across Florida where there are allegations of document fraud.


Copyright © 2011 Sun Sentinel, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., Peter Franceschina. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services

Florida is Best-Positioned State for Growth
Some great economic news was released today based on a study performed by Wells Fargo.  According to the study, Florida is the best-positioned state in the nation for business growth and new jobs.

In raking states by regional competitiveness — intrinsic factors that lead employers to create jobs in that state versus others nearby — Florida scored first in the Wells Fargo study released Wednesday morning.

Florida gets a boost in the rankings by tourism and hospitality industries, a natural for a state that attracts more than any other on the East Coast.

But Wells Fargo also gives Florida credit for a growing “life-sciences” industry, citing both a hefty retired population needing medical care and the research dollars that come with facilities like the planned Scripps Research facility in Palm Beach County. “The influx of new medical research facilities will help reinvigorate [research and development] growth in Florida, helping further diversify the state’s economy,’’ the report said.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/04/13/2165173/despite-battered-economy-florida.html#ixzz1JWfRrRqt

Monthly Change in Home Value

The Case Shiller home value index for January was published this morning revealing a 1.26% decline in South Florida, the steepest one-month decline since April 2009.  Stay tuned, it's been a busy 'season' and hopefully the numbers for the next few months will be more encouraging.

Older Homes More Attractive in Current Market

WASHINGTON – March 23, 2011 – A new home, the dream of many would-be buyers, makes less and less financial sense in many places.

A wave of foreclosures has driven down the cost of previously occupied homes and made them even more of a comparative bargain. By contrast, new homes have become more expensive.



The median price of a new home in the United States is now 48 percent higher than that of a home being resold, more than three times the gap in a healthy housing market.

 A lot of people are saying, ‘If I can get a great deal on a home already on the market, why go through the headaches of getting a new home?’” says Mark Vitner, a senior economist with Wells Fargo. 


The gap is widening because prices of previously occupied homes are falling fast, pulled down by waves of foreclosures and short sales. Cities with more foreclosures tend to have more resale homes that have languished on the market and are priced at a bargain. That makes new homes in those areas comparatively expensive.

 Contributing to higher new-home prices is the rising cost of building materials.



 Copyright © 2011 The Associated Press, Derek Kravitz, AP business writer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. AP business writers Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington and Alex Veiga in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

Monthly Value Change

If you're anything like me, you're always anxious for the monthly value analysis to come out....here ya go...

(SOFla Single Family declined .49% in December)

Single Family Home Values Decline 3.73% in 2010 
The Case Shiller Value Index results for December were just released and, according to the Index, values in South Florida declined just under 4% in 2010.  For some perspective, compare last year's results with 2009 (-9.91%) and 2008 (-28.79%) .... there don't you feel better?

It's not clear if we'll see the same kind of improvement in 2011 (I'm thinking we'll be about the same) as lenders seem to be sorting out their foreclosure procedures and even seem a bit more inclined to agree to reasonable short sale settlements.  All those sales will tend to keep prices low.  I think buyers should be prepared to make their moves in the next year or so if buying at the bottom of the market is important.

Monthly Home Value Report

The Case-Shiller value data were released today.  Once again values dropped slightly in South Florida but there's a lot more misery in other parts of the country (if that makes us feel any better).  There are 20 metropolitan areas measured in the report and only San Diego, CA had a month-over-month increase and (HERE'S the good news) of those that lost value, South Florida had the smallest decrease of the remaining 19 cities.  There are some new places cropping up with significant value decreases year-over-year (6.5% or more); Atlanta, Chicago and Portland, Oregon.  South Florida's annual change as of November 2010 was 3.5%.  There, doesn't that feel better?