Home Values UP over 10% in 2012!

The headlines and sound bytes have finally been substantiated by my favorite real estate yardstick, the Case Shiller Value Index:  2012 was a very good year.  I like the CSVI because rather than comparing aggregate sales amounts, the CSVI compares the price of each property sold in a period (e.g. December 2012) to that property’s previous selling price and crunches it into an index with all other sales in that month. I report the change in these index figures in these updates.   

The attached graphic shows month-over-month value change.  As you can see, 2012 had 11 months of increasing value and ended with 10.65% growth for the year.  This is the first year the index hasn’t declined since 2006.  Some may be concerned that growth at this rate suggests the beginning of another bubble, but I’m not too concerned since the methodology of the index reflects purchases of distressed homes that were rehabilitated and sold at market value.  As we work through the inventory of foreclosures/short sales, the market should return to a sustainable (dare I say healthy) level. 

Is the LOW Mortgage Rate Party Over?

The national average mortgage rate is 3.54% this week for 30 year fixed-rate loans; it was 3.34% last week. The repeated record-low rates over the last several months have, in reality, been indicators of how bad the economy was.  Solid year-end housing numbers and other positive economic news pushed rates higher this week. While low rates have been nice, (still) reasonable rates AND an improving economy are much better.

15-year rate average is 2.81%. Buyers should always investigate the possibility of a 15-year loan. In some cases a few more dollars each month can translate to thousands saved over the life of a mortgage.

Home Prices Up

The Case Shiller Home Price Indices for November 2012 were released this morning with South Florida back in positive territory in the month-over-month measurement (there was a slight decline in last month's report).  Prices rose three-fourths of one percent in the month, were just under 10% above November 2011 and racks up an increase of 9.75% for January-November 2012.

This study includes 20 metropolitan areas with 19 increasing in November.  The greatest increases are being experienced in Phoenix where prices were up almost over 23% over the twelve months ending in November.

Canadians Sense Chinese Competition for Florida Real Estate

Here's an interesting article from Toronto addressing concern that Florida real estate isn't as easy to pick up as it used to be.  http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1313408--snowbirds-facing-new-headwinds-in-florida-real-estate-markets

Home Value Report Mixed this Month

October brought South Florida's first month-to-month value decline since November of last year according to the Case Shiller Value Index.  Realists, like yours truly, will welcome this cooling of the market since the numbers were trending toward unsustainable growth and we're too close to 2006 to forget that lesson (aren't we?).  Values fell just under 2-tenths of a percent (ok...not much) between September and October and were still 8.5% above October of last year.

Happy New Year Everyone!

Home Value Continues to Rise

The Case Shiller Index for September was released this morning.  Once again the numbers are favorable for homeowners with values increasing in South Florida for the 10th month in a row.  We haven't experienced this kind of positive trend since 2007.

Value increases are favorable nation-wide but to a lesser extent.  The Index observes that communities hardest-hit by the mortgage debacle (e.g. Phoenix, Las Vegas & here) are rebounding more strongly.  So far it looks like values in South Florida could increase nearly 9% this year which is a bit hotter than most real estate scholars (yes there are some) feel is healthy but an understandable reflex to recover from the trauma we've been through.

Home Value Index Up Again This Month

The Case Shiller Home Value Index for August was released this morning.  Values continue to increase in South Florida but at a slower pace than the extraordinary result last month.  Home value in South Florida increased just under 1 percent from last month and 6.7 percent higher than August of last year.

Well off our Bottom...

....is how today's Case Shiller housing value index describes the market in South Florida (slightly paraphrased).  Month-over-month single family value was up 2.12%, the eighth consecutive month of increases.  July values were 5.35% over those in July 2011.  Some people (your humble blogger included) might have some concern that the market is becoming too heated but it sure feels good to report positive numbers for a change.

The inventory of homes available for buyers has been shrinking for months and there is evidence that many who would like to sell are holding off for a couple of years hedging for considerably better selling prices.  There's a lot going on in the world economically so stay tuned.

Not so Sure About that Shadow Inventory of Foreclosures

For months the housing industry has been under the cloud of the so called shadow inventory, a suspected tsunami of foreclosures damed up while lenders sorted through the sloppy procedures they were following for the first few years of the correction.  The article in the link below presents new evidence that lenders and homeowners are finding alternatives to foreclosure.  By the way, Core Logic,  whose statistics and analysis are cited in the article, also has a division that provides data services for most of the MLS (multiple listing service) used by Realtors throughout the country (including all of South Florida).

Foreclosures Article

Time for Investors to Get Serious?

I try not to beat the Case-Shiller Value Index to a pulp when reporting each month but there's another measure I track that is showing an interesting trend.  One of the indices reflects value in tiered pricing, that is high-priced, medium-priced and low-priced homes.  The value trends for each of the three tiers is represented above with the left axis showing the percent decline from peak values in 2006.  Throughout the correction, lower priced homes have declined faster and been slower to recover but now we see all three tiers beginning what appears to be an upward trend.  Could this be a trigger for investors (especially those looking for 'bargains') to realize that the time to act is now?

Single Family Home Value Up Again

The Case Shiller Value Index for June was released Tuesday showing a second month of strong value gains in South Florida and a very encouraging increase nationally.  In South Florida, values grew 1.58% in the month of June and were 4.42% higher than June 2011.  The graph to the left shows 2012 to be, so far, a much more favorable year for home value.

South Florida Home Values Up

The Case Shiller Index data for May were released this morning with yet another increase (month-over-month) for South Florida; the 6th monthly increase in a row.  In fact, the monthly increase (1.43% between April and May) is the highest since 2005.  Compared with May of last year, the index shows values increased 3.6%.

Case Shiller Value Analysis

Following months of declines on a national basis, the Case Shiller Value Index for single family homes rose in 18 of the 20 MSAs in the index.  South Florida remains in positive territory but at a bit slower pace than last month.  Values in South Florida are 3.16% higher than April 2011 in contrast with a 1.9% decline nationally.

Case Shiller Value Index Encouraging

Hopefully I'm not just being Realtor-sanguine here...but the numbers look pretty good.  Values in South Florida have been up the each month in the first quarter of 2012 in sharp contrast with declines in the "national composite" or all the markets tracked by the index (2% decline).  Based on this data values in South Florida are holding at late 2002 levels.

Case Shiller Index for South Floirda

The Case Shiller value index for February was released this morning.  In yet another proof of the term "real estate is LOCAL"; South Florida bucks the national trend with increases month over month and year over year.  Many news outlets announced the national findings of 3% decline for the year ending 29 February.   This compares with a .76% increase in South Florida for the same period.  Let's hope the positive months on the graphic on the left continue to stay in positive territory.

South Florida Beats the Trend in Value

The January Case Shiller Value Index released today was generally dismal with the exception of South Florida, Phoenix and Washington, DC.  January's results established new lows for the composite indicies of the analysis making our figures seem even stronger.

Values in South Florida increased .65% (just over one-half of one percent) from December 2011 and the current index is just over 3% above January of last year.

In case you're wondering, the designation of 'worst performing market' has been Atlanta for the last few months.

Home Value Index Higher-Bucks National Trend

South Florida is among just two metro-areas with an increase between November and December (the other is Phoenix) in the Case Shiller Home Value Index for December published this morning.  We no longer have the dubious distinction of leading the pack in national home value decline but rather are holding our own or showing slightly more positive results.

For November-December South Florida's value index increased 0.17% (okay...that's not much but it's in the right direction) while the national index fell 1.1%.  For 2011 South Florida held its decline to 3.78% (about equal to 2010); the national decline was 3.9%.

Home Value Still Down

The home value index for November was published by Case Shiller yesterday.  The month-over-month decline was just over one-half-of-one-percent with the decline from the year before at 4.4%

Single Family Home Values Down a Little

The Case Shiller Value Analysis for October was published today with South Florida single family values dropping about .25%.  Values dropped in all but one of the markets (Washington, DC) surveyed by the analysis.  It looks like values in this analysis will fall about 5% this year in our market.

Thinking of Becoming a Landlord?

Owners who are upside-down and investors eyeing lower real estate prices will often consider renting property as an immediate strategy.  Here's a great article anyone considering becoming a landlord should read.

http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/article.cfm?p=1&id=268339

Home Values Dip

South Florida followed suit with what you're hearing about home values in the rest of the country. Prices on single family homes in our market dropped 1.56% in September according to the latest report of the Case Shiller Index.  Softening of reported value for "high-tier" properties (more-expensive) drove the overall decline.

More Short Sales than Foreclosure Sales in September

I'm currently working with three short sale transactions (and about to add a fourth).  Clearly they are challenging for all parties involved but are a major factor in this market and with hard work and patience, can end in a successful sale.  I've been tracking the short sale & foreclosure market since January 2009.  Much has been made of the constriction of foreclosures in light of  'robo-sign' practices of processors and the number of transactions has been in flux, but I was surprised to find that the number of short sales actually exceeded foreclosure sales in September for the first time.

Single Family Home Value Down a Tad

Case Shiller value index for August was released this morning.  Value in South Florida dropped slightly led by decline in the higher-tier (more "expensive") homes.

Save $40,000!!

For some perspective on today's mortgage rate news; a home buyer borrowing $180,000 at today's rate would save $40,000 in interest over the life of the loan, compared with the same loan at 5% (the rate just six months ago).  Monthly payments would be about $100 cheaper too.

There would be no iphone without Broward County

While the "whole world" was waiting breathlessly for the announcement of the latest iphone; an engineering firm in SUNRISE, FL was churning out components for the new device.  http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2011/09/13/slideshow-when-iphone-5s-coming.html?s=print

"Lower Value" Homes Still Dropping
As we observe an overall increase in value of single family homes in South Florida, it is interesting to note, in an analysis of the tiered pricing study provided by the Index, that lower-priced homes are not contributing to the increase.  The index defines a 'low priced' home in our market as under $144,203.  As the attached chart shows, homes in that tier continue to decline while the middle and upper tiers rebound.

Clearly sellers of homes in that range should not 'test the market' but price their properties to secure a buyer as quickly as possible.

South Florida Home Values Up Too

Case Shiller Index results for July were released this morning.  South Florida follows the national trend with single family home values increasing  1.21% in that month.  July's number brings us to just about the break-even point for the year (i.e. no change in value for the year) which is an accomplishment after the disappointing numbers, we experienced earlier this year, suggested a drop in value in 2011.

Home Values Up Again

Single family home values rose again in June for the second month this year according to the Case Shiller Value Analysis.  Values in South Florida increased .62% in June after a 1.18% percent rise in May.  Based on the index, values decreased 2.54% in the first half of the year. 

Our Attorney General is on the Wrong Side of this Matter
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinion/editorials/bondi-picks-the-wrong-side-1688749.html

May was a Good Month for Home Value

The Case Shiller Value Analysis released this morning reported that May was a good month for home value.  Twenty of the US metropolitan areas included in the study registered increases with South Florida in the pack at UP 1.18%.

High-Priced Homes Drove Value Increase in May
The Case Shiller Value Analysis presents single family home values in tiers based on a price break calculation they identify as Low, Medium and High.  I've charted the last couple of years on the attached chart for South Florida (Miami & Ft Lauderdale).  This shows that the 1.18% aggregate increase in values was driven by strong value increases in higher priced homes (those over $249,104) while lower priced homes actually declined just a bit.

Pompano Beach Condo Sale Confirms Values are Increasing

I am pleased to announce the sale of our listing, unit 1206 in the Waterbury Condo for $213,000.  This remodeled 2 bedroom/2 bath unit at 1180 square feet ($180.50/square foot) is the highest sale in the building in two years.  The condo was impeccably maintained and the kitchen had been remodeled in the last three years. The limited number of homes available to the buyers drove this sale.

If you’re a seller waiting for a more favorable time to list and sell your property, NOW IS THE TIME.  The buyer pool is still smaller than we would like to see it and it is the limited number of choices that resulted in the sale I’m reporting here.  As the market stabilizes sellers who have been holding off will jump into the market and the inventory will increase.  List now while your property is the only game in town.  Call me today to initiate a plan to get your property sold.

The Bottom of the Real Estate Market

In a great article on the South Florida economy in this morning’s Miami Herald, Octavio Hernandez, President of US Century Bank was quoted: “In the last two months, we have seen a lot of activity” from distressed-asset buyers, “I think people have realized prices have pretty much dropped as far as they’re going to”.   This suggests that ‘vulture investors’ have concluded that now is the time to enter the market before values begin their slow climb.  Obviously this is a great indication for buyers to get serious about investing in real estate but sellers too should take this opportunity to list now to take advantage of the reduced inventory and buyer urgency to make their move.   

South Florida Housing Value History

Each April I capture an annualized value measurement based on the Case Shiller Value Index for Miami/Fort Lauderdale.  As you can see, 2010-2011 is not measuring up as well as the previous year.  The bumpy bottom of the market is taking a bit of a downward turn this year; further evidence to the complete unpredictability of the market.  Another thing this chart presents is the unprecedented nature of the recent market boom/bust (just in case we needed to see it depicted another way).

Home Values Down Again...but just a 'Little'
The Case Shiller value index for April was published today.  National results were a bit less dire than the last month reported with a few cities experiencing an increase in value.  In South Florida the monthly decline was just under one-quarter of one percent; better than the .81% decline in February.

Values are still disappointing in 2011 compared to last year which will be documented in my next post...the one you've been waiting for folks; the annual 'appreciation' measurement I take each April.  How's that for a teaser?

Case Shiller Value Index-Better than Last Month

So here's the rest of the story after you've listened to the news reports on the Case Shiller Home Value Index figures released this morning.  The media are reporting a downward trend in values throughout the country but the results in South Florida are a bit more encouraging.  While we experienced a decline in the month of March (the most recent month reported by the Index) the rate of decline was FAR less alarming than last month (0.84% in March vs. 2.02% in February).  I'm still inclined to view February's drop as an anomaly (let's hope anyway) so based on our first quarter performance values may decline anywhere from 5.5% to 16.5% in 2011.  If we split the difference that's around 11%.  Now statistics NEVER lie somehow it feels like we're not going to have another decline of over 10% this year.  Prices in the more desirable areas (near the ocean & in great school districts) seem to be stabilizing, especially where the inventory of homes for sale is tight.  I'm anxious to see what the next few months' performance is like to turn around the disappointing numbers from the first quarter.

Foreclosure News
The news reports today tout significantly lower foreclosures in April than the same period a year ago.  It's difficult to determine if this suggests improvement in the market or other factors.  The following tidbit from the Miami Herald might provide some insight:
   In Florida, it now takes an average of 619 days—about 20 months—for the foreclosure process to run its course. That’s up from 470 days last year, and 169 days in 2007.

In case you ever wondered if anyone responsible for the lending debacle of last decade would be called to account.....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/us-sues-deutsche-bank-alleging-mortgage-fraud/2011/05/03/AFfym4iF_print.html

Pretty Steep Drop in Single Family Home Values

The Case-Shiller Value Analysis for February was published today (remember that this analysis "seasons" its data to give ample time for county records to be updated).  The month-over-month decline in value (at -2.02%) is the sharpest since April of 2009.  This could very well be explained by an increase in foreclosure sales backlogged by the 'robo-signing' revelation made late last year.  Foreclosure and short sale transactions in the Multiple Listing Service were about 6% higher than normal in January and February.  I'll be waiting with bated breath (as I'm sure the readers of this humble blog will be) to see if values stabilize next month.

Condos
Interesting article in today's Miami Herald about the condo market in the area and the strategy a major developer is following:
 Miami’s top condominium developer is planning to emerge from the region’s worst housing bust by picking up where it left off before the economy tanked, and building a shiny new condo tower.   The Related Group, which built more than 15,000 South Florida condos during the housing boom, then found itself fighting off insolvency when the recession hit, is seeking city approval for a new 35-story condo building in Brickell.   Related is set to go before Miami’s Planning, Zoning and Appeals Board on Wednesday to pitch its new project, to be built at 30 SE Sixth St.   Related’s subsidiary, TRG Brickell Station, originally received approval to use that site for a project called “Brickell Station,” in 2006. That condo tower, stalled because of the downturn, was planned to be nearly 600 feet tall, with 232 residences stacked on top of a parking garage.   The new plan scraps the 10-level parking garage, dropping the building’s height to 350 feet, and offers a new name: “My Brickell.” The expected dates for groundbreaking and completion are not listed in the application, and Related executives did not respond to requests for comment.   “To see Related and others move forward to build towers doesn’t surprise me, because it’s an arduous process,” said Peter Zalewski, a principal at CondoVultures, a Bal Harbour-based consultancy. “If you assume that construction takes 18 to 24 months, you start to look at roughly a 2014 delivery. I don’t know that that’s going to make sense two years from now, but if Related were able to build a tower without parking, they’d be able to reduce their costs tremendously.”   Zalewski added that of 22,000 new condos built in downtown Miami since 2003, about 3,200, or 14 percent, remain unsold.

 Lauderdale firm buys troubled mortgages: 


More insight into how this mortgage-mess will be resolved.  In the Sun-Sentinel this morning:


Fort Lauderdale-based private equity firm US Debt Ventures has purchased a pool of troubled mortgages with a face value of $500 million from an unidentified major bank, the firm announced Monday.   The firm bought a pool of about 7,000 first, second and third liens on mortgages across the nation. US Debt Ventures did not disclose how much it paid for the pool of loans, or which bank it purchased from. The seller was described in a release as “one of the five largest financial institutions.”   The company has plans for more bulk deals in 2011 and 2012, said Jamie Zambrana, director of acquisitions and analytics.

Florida Supreme Court May Reshape Foreclosure Proceses (watch this one!)




GREENACRES, Fla. – April 18, 2011 – A South Florida homeowner who alleges the mortgage foreclosure action against him was tainted by fraudulent paperwork will have his case reviewed by the Florida Supreme Court, in a closely watched action that could reshape state law.

The 4th District Court of Appeal had asked the state’s high court to decide the case as matter of “great public importance.” The Supreme Court agreed to hear the case in an order issued Friday.

Legal experts say the case, Roman Pino vs. The Bank of New York Mellon, could result in changes in foreclosure cases where there is evidence of fraud in the way documents were handled by lenders, mortgage servicers and law firms.

“Many, many mortgage foreclosures appear tainted with suspect documents,” the appeals court in West Palm Beach wrote.

If the case is decided in favor of Pino, a resident of Greenacres in Palm Beach County, the ruling could affect thousands of foreclosures across Florida where there are allegations of document fraud.


Copyright © 2011 Sun Sentinel, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., Peter Franceschina. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services

Florida is Best-Positioned State for Growth
Some great economic news was released today based on a study performed by Wells Fargo.  According to the study, Florida is the best-positioned state in the nation for business growth and new jobs.

In raking states by regional competitiveness — intrinsic factors that lead employers to create jobs in that state versus others nearby — Florida scored first in the Wells Fargo study released Wednesday morning.

Florida gets a boost in the rankings by tourism and hospitality industries, a natural for a state that attracts more than any other on the East Coast.

But Wells Fargo also gives Florida credit for a growing “life-sciences” industry, citing both a hefty retired population needing medical care and the research dollars that come with facilities like the planned Scripps Research facility in Palm Beach County. “The influx of new medical research facilities will help reinvigorate [research and development] growth in Florida, helping further diversify the state’s economy,’’ the report said.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/04/13/2165173/despite-battered-economy-florida.html#ixzz1JWfRrRqt

Monthly Change in Home Value

The Case Shiller home value index for January was published this morning revealing a 1.26% decline in South Florida, the steepest one-month decline since April 2009.  Stay tuned, it's been a busy 'season' and hopefully the numbers for the next few months will be more encouraging.

Older Homes More Attractive in Current Market

WASHINGTON – March 23, 2011 – A new home, the dream of many would-be buyers, makes less and less financial sense in many places.

A wave of foreclosures has driven down the cost of previously occupied homes and made them even more of a comparative bargain. By contrast, new homes have become more expensive.



The median price of a new home in the United States is now 48 percent higher than that of a home being resold, more than three times the gap in a healthy housing market.

 A lot of people are saying, ‘If I can get a great deal on a home already on the market, why go through the headaches of getting a new home?’” says Mark Vitner, a senior economist with Wells Fargo. 


The gap is widening because prices of previously occupied homes are falling fast, pulled down by waves of foreclosures and short sales. Cities with more foreclosures tend to have more resale homes that have languished on the market and are priced at a bargain. That makes new homes in those areas comparatively expensive.

 Contributing to higher new-home prices is the rising cost of building materials.



 Copyright © 2011 The Associated Press, Derek Kravitz, AP business writer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. AP business writers Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington and Alex Veiga in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

Monthly Value Change

If you're anything like me, you're always anxious for the monthly value analysis to come out....here ya go...

(SOFla Single Family declined .49% in December)

Single Family Home Values Decline 3.73% in 2010 
The Case Shiller Value Index results for December were just released and, according to the Index, values in South Florida declined just under 4% in 2010.  For some perspective, compare last year's results with 2009 (-9.91%) and 2008 (-28.79%) .... there don't you feel better?

It's not clear if we'll see the same kind of improvement in 2011 (I'm thinking we'll be about the same) as lenders seem to be sorting out their foreclosure procedures and even seem a bit more inclined to agree to reasonable short sale settlements.  All those sales will tend to keep prices low.  I think buyers should be prepared to make their moves in the next year or so if buying at the bottom of the market is important.

Monthly Home Value Report

The Case-Shiller value data were released today.  Once again values dropped slightly in South Florida but there's a lot more misery in other parts of the country (if that makes us feel any better).  There are 20 metropolitan areas measured in the report and only San Diego, CA had a month-over-month increase and (HERE'S the good news) of those that lost value, South Florida had the smallest decrease of the remaining 19 cities.  There are some new places cropping up with significant value decreases year-over-year (6.5% or more); Atlanta, Chicago and Portland, Oregon.  South Florida's annual change as of November 2010 was 3.5%.  There, doesn't that feel better?

Case-Shiller Index For SoFLA Better than National Results

So, in real estate these days we find our silver linings wherever they crop up and today's Case-Shiller Index report provides just such treasure only SLIGHTLY tarnished.  Media outlets are reporting a decline in home values of 2% in October 2010 (the most recent period analysed by the Index) but that figure is the average for the nation and as we all know, real estate is a LOCAL marketplace.  Readers of this humble blog will be able to impress their friends at the remaining holiday parties by pointing out that the change in value in South Florida was 'only' -1.1%. 

Short Sales a Bit More Prevalent

An analysis of 'distressed sales' (foreclosures and short sales) reveals that a greater proportion of single family homes in Broward County are being purchased through short sales (just over 20% of all sales).  Anyone who's been involved in a short sale understands the challenges involved and the patience required.  While patience on the part of buyer and seller is still required, this statistic appears to show some hope that a short sale might be a viable option.  It remains a mystery why lenders are so reluctant to pursue short sales since the average single family home in Broward County sells for about 30% more in a short sale than in foreclosure.

Property Tax Exemption Filing Dates Announced For January 2011


Documents required to file a Homestead Exemption include:
• A current Florida driver's license or Florida identification card, and
• A current voter registration card or declaration of domicile
• Non-US citizens must also provide proof of permanent residency.

Qualified residents 65 years of age or older as of January 1, 2011 may also apply for the additional Senior Exemption. Eligible seniors must have a total household adjusted gross income not to exceed $25,780. Documents required for the Senior Exemption include a 2010 income tax return or, if one does not file income taxes, a copy of the 2010 Social Security 1099 Form.

You still have plenty of time to file for a 2011 Homestead Exemption, Widow/Widower Exemption, Disability Exemption, Portability, or other exemption. Simply contact us to complete your application by the September 19, 2011 deadline.

The Broward Property Appraiser's office holds community outreach meetings frequently to answer questions about taxes and exemptions.  Click here for the January calendar.

GOOD NEWS! 20% DROP in Number of FORECLOSURES in 2011-per TransUnion (the credit score people)


WASHINGTON – Dec. 10, 2010 – U.S. credit bureau TransUnion predicted Thursday the number of delinquent mortgage accounts would drop by nearly 20 percent next year.

The number of delinquent accounts – those with payments 60 days past due – is predicted to fall to 4.98 percent by the end of 2011 from 6.89 percent at the end of 2009.

“This is a welcome contrast to the year-over-year increases of 54 percent between 2006 and 2007, 53 percent between 2007 and 2008 and 50 percent between 2008 and 2009,” TransUnion said in a press release.

Steve Chaouki, group vice president in TransUnion’s financial services business unit, said the decrease in delinquencies could be attributed to “a slowly improving unemployment picture and continued stabilization in housing markets.”

“While there is continued price pressure in many markets, we expect a rise in property values along with some stabilization of values in those states and markets hardest hit by the recession,” he said.

TransUnion said Nevada would see a 24.77 percent drop in its delinquency rate next year while Arizona’s rate would drop 24.27 percent. In Florida, the rate would drop 23.9 percent.

“Interestingly, the states projected to experience the greatest decrease in mortgage delinquencies – Nevada, Arizona and Florida – are the same areas expected to have the highest 60-day mortgage delinquency rates at the end of next year,” TransUnion said.

The states most in need of improvement, in other words, are expected to experience the highest rates of improvement.

Copyright © United Press International 2010

Case-Shiller Value Analysis

The value of single family homes in South Florida declined 1.24% in August according to the Case-Shiller Value Analysis released today.  This is the greatest single-month decline since April 2009.  So far, 2010 hasn't performed with the promise I anticipated at the end of last year.  There was a report from Moody's a week or so ago that projected 'pent-up demand' for Florida real estate.  There may be some support for Moody's optimism as I've noted that at least 50% of the showings of our listings in recent weeks have been to buyers from out of the country.  Let's hope for a gangbuster winter season!

National Median Home Prices

Our friends at the National Association of Realtors have put together this fun interactive map so we can compare our housing statistics with other parts of the country.  Enjoy... http://bit.ly/dkyjLk

Distressed Sales Still about 50% of Total

This is an analysis of closed sales representing the proportion of 'distressed' sales (foreclosures & short sales) and 'arms length' to all units sold.  While the proportion of distressed sales remains fairly constant at about 50% of the total, it is remarkable to note that short sales are comprising a larger proportion of the Distressed segment.  In fact, short sales are 26% ahead of last year in proportion of units sold while foreclosure sales have declined by 6.7%.  The increased proportion of short sales could be a factor of more inventory as sellers elect to list their properties as short sales and perhaps a more receptive lender community processing and approving short sales more efficiently.

Single Family Home Values Dip Slightly

Home values declined in August according to the Case Shiller Value Index which I track monthly.  It could be that the three previous months' of gains were attributed to the buying frenzy created by the home-buyer tax credit (remember that?).  Transactions eligible for the credit needed to be closed by the end of July so it might be that August (the most recent month reported by the Index) represents a return to 'normal'.  I'm afraid optimism for a break-even year on value is waining.  

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