Home Value Recovery Continues

The value of single family homes in South Florida increased just under eight-tenths of one percent between December and January.  Results of the Case Shiller Value Indices released today record an increase of 10.77% since January 2012.  Our area is strongly participating in the national recovery with all 20 cities (metropolitan statistical areas-MSAs) measured by the Indices experiencing year-over-year increases with 19 of the 20 increasing at an accelerating rate.

Home Values UP over 10% in 2012!

The headlines and sound bytes have finally been substantiated by my favorite real estate yardstick, the Case Shiller Value Index:  2012 was a very good year.  I like the CSVI because rather than comparing aggregate sales amounts, the CSVI compares the price of each property sold in a period (e.g. December 2012) to that property’s previous selling price and crunches it into an index with all other sales in that month. I report the change in these index figures in these updates.   

The attached graphic shows month-over-month value change.  As you can see, 2012 had 11 months of increasing value and ended with 10.65% growth for the year.  This is the first year the index hasn’t declined since 2006.  Some may be concerned that growth at this rate suggests the beginning of another bubble, but I’m not too concerned since the methodology of the index reflects purchases of distressed homes that were rehabilitated and sold at market value.  As we work through the inventory of foreclosures/short sales, the market should return to a sustainable (dare I say healthy) level. 

Is the LOW Mortgage Rate Party Over?

The national average mortgage rate is 3.54% this week for 30 year fixed-rate loans; it was 3.34% last week. The repeated record-low rates over the last several months have, in reality, been indicators of how bad the economy was.  Solid year-end housing numbers and other positive economic news pushed rates higher this week. While low rates have been nice, (still) reasonable rates AND an improving economy are much better.

15-year rate average is 2.81%. Buyers should always investigate the possibility of a 15-year loan. In some cases a few more dollars each month can translate to thousands saved over the life of a mortgage.

Home Prices Up

The Case Shiller Home Price Indices for November 2012 were released this morning with South Florida back in positive territory in the month-over-month measurement (there was a slight decline in last month's report).  Prices rose three-fourths of one percent in the month, were just under 10% above November 2011 and racks up an increase of 9.75% for January-November 2012.

This study includes 20 metropolitan areas with 19 increasing in November.  The greatest increases are being experienced in Phoenix where prices were up almost over 23% over the twelve months ending in November.

Canadians Sense Chinese Competition for Florida Real Estate

Here's an interesting article from Toronto addressing concern that Florida real estate isn't as easy to pick up as it used to be.  http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1313408--snowbirds-facing-new-headwinds-in-florida-real-estate-markets

Home Value Report Mixed this Month

October brought South Florida's first month-to-month value decline since November of last year according to the Case Shiller Value Index.  Realists, like yours truly, will welcome this cooling of the market since the numbers were trending toward unsustainable growth and we're too close to 2006 to forget that lesson (aren't we?).  Values fell just under 2-tenths of a percent (ok...not much) between September and October and were still 8.5% above October of last year.

Happy New Year Everyone!

Home Value Continues to Rise

The Case Shiller Index for September was released this morning.  Once again the numbers are favorable for homeowners with values increasing in South Florida for the 10th month in a row.  We haven't experienced this kind of positive trend since 2007.

Value increases are favorable nation-wide but to a lesser extent.  The Index observes that communities hardest-hit by the mortgage debacle (e.g. Phoenix, Las Vegas & here) are rebounding more strongly.  So far it looks like values in South Florida could increase nearly 9% this year which is a bit hotter than most real estate scholars (yes there are some) feel is healthy but an understandable reflex to recover from the trauma we've been through.

Home Value Index Up Again This Month

The Case Shiller Home Value Index for August was released this morning.  Values continue to increase in South Florida but at a slower pace than the extraordinary result last month.  Home value in South Florida increased just under 1 percent from last month and 6.7 percent higher than August of last year.

Well off our Bottom...

....is how today's Case Shiller housing value index describes the market in South Florida (slightly paraphrased).  Month-over-month single family value was up 2.12%, the eighth consecutive month of increases.  July values were 5.35% over those in July 2011.  Some people (your humble blogger included) might have some concern that the market is becoming too heated but it sure feels good to report positive numbers for a change.

The inventory of homes available for buyers has been shrinking for months and there is evidence that many who would like to sell are holding off for a couple of years hedging for considerably better selling prices.  There's a lot going on in the world economically so stay tuned.

Not so Sure About that Shadow Inventory of Foreclosures

For months the housing industry has been under the cloud of the so called shadow inventory, a suspected tsunami of foreclosures damed up while lenders sorted through the sloppy procedures they were following for the first few years of the correction.  The article in the link below presents new evidence that lenders and homeowners are finding alternatives to foreclosure.  By the way, Core Logic,  whose statistics and analysis are cited in the article, also has a division that provides data services for most of the MLS (multiple listing service) used by Realtors throughout the country (including all of South Florida).

Foreclosures Article

Time for Investors to Get Serious?

I try not to beat the Case-Shiller Value Index to a pulp when reporting each month but there's another measure I track that is showing an interesting trend.  One of the indices reflects value in tiered pricing, that is high-priced, medium-priced and low-priced homes.  The value trends for each of the three tiers is represented above with the left axis showing the percent decline from peak values in 2006.  Throughout the correction, lower priced homes have declined faster and been slower to recover but now we see all three tiers beginning what appears to be an upward trend.  Could this be a trigger for investors (especially those looking for 'bargains') to realize that the time to act is now?

Single Family Home Value Up Again

The Case Shiller Value Index for June was released Tuesday showing a second month of strong value gains in South Florida and a very encouraging increase nationally.  In South Florida, values grew 1.58% in the month of June and were 4.42% higher than June 2011.  The graph to the left shows 2012 to be, so far, a much more favorable year for home value.

South Florida Home Values Up

The Case Shiller Index data for May were released this morning with yet another increase (month-over-month) for South Florida; the 6th monthly increase in a row.  In fact, the monthly increase (1.43% between April and May) is the highest since 2005.  Compared with May of last year, the index shows values increased 3.6%.

Case Shiller Value Analysis

Following months of declines on a national basis, the Case Shiller Value Index for single family homes rose in 18 of the 20 MSAs in the index.  South Florida remains in positive territory but at a bit slower pace than last month.  Values in South Florida are 3.16% higher than April 2011 in contrast with a 1.9% decline nationally.

Case Shiller Value Index Encouraging

Hopefully I'm not just being Realtor-sanguine here...but the numbers look pretty good.  Values in South Florida have been up the each month in the first quarter of 2012 in sharp contrast with declines in the "national composite" or all the markets tracked by the index (2% decline).  Based on this data values in South Florida are holding at late 2002 levels.

Case Shiller Index for South Floirda

The Case Shiller value index for February was released this morning.  In yet another proof of the term "real estate is LOCAL"; South Florida bucks the national trend with increases month over month and year over year.  Many news outlets announced the national findings of 3% decline for the year ending 29 February.   This compares with a .76% increase in South Florida for the same period.  Let's hope the positive months on the graphic on the left continue to stay in positive territory.

South Florida Beats the Trend in Value

The January Case Shiller Value Index released today was generally dismal with the exception of South Florida, Phoenix and Washington, DC.  January's results established new lows for the composite indicies of the analysis making our figures seem even stronger.

Values in South Florida increased .65% (just over one-half of one percent) from December 2011 and the current index is just over 3% above January of last year.

In case you're wondering, the designation of 'worst performing market' has been Atlanta for the last few months.

Home Value Index Higher-Bucks National Trend

South Florida is among just two metro-areas with an increase between November and December (the other is Phoenix) in the Case Shiller Home Value Index for December published this morning.  We no longer have the dubious distinction of leading the pack in national home value decline but rather are holding our own or showing slightly more positive results.

For November-December South Florida's value index increased 0.17% (okay...that's not much but it's in the right direction) while the national index fell 1.1%.  For 2011 South Florida held its decline to 3.78% (about equal to 2010); the national decline was 3.9%.

Home Value Still Down

The home value index for November was published by Case Shiller yesterday.  The month-over-month decline was just over one-half-of-one-percent with the decline from the year before at 4.4%

Single Family Home Values Down a Little

The Case Shiller Value Analysis for October was published today with South Florida single family values dropping about .25%.  Values dropped in all but one of the markets (Washington, DC) surveyed by the analysis.  It looks like values in this analysis will fall about 5% this year in our market.