ZERO Never Looked So Good

June was the first month single family home values didn't decline since February 2007 according to Case-Shiller Index results published yesterday. In fact, the exact change in single family home value in South Florida was an increase of .54%

Of course, one month does not a market-change make but the numbers have been pointing toward this eventuality for a few months now. This should give buyers a green light to move forward and homeowners/sellers some solace that the worst of the decline is over.

There are lots of comparable sales now to help buyers and sellers determine what the 'new normal' is. Feel free to give me a call to find out what values are in your area of interest.

The 'End' in Sight?

We're starting to see some credible data to support a prediction of the market bottom. Once again I look to my revered Case-Shiller Index (remember Robert Shiller got it right in the heady years of the market boom) and have plotted the actual index against what I'm calling 'normal appreciation' (the average increase of home values for the 13 years before the boom began).

The large chart shows the 22 year history of the index measurement in South Florida; the inset focuses on the change so far in 2009. As you can see, the actual value index (the top line) is rapidly moving toward the 'normal' trend line below.

I suspect we'll see these lines cross as actual values will fall below the trend line as an over-correction is likely but I also sense values will fairly rapidly rise to return to the trend after bumping along the bottom for a few months.

OK...there you have it...I'm on the limb with a prediction (sort of). In any event, it's a great time for buyers (with better housing value and low interest rates) and sellers with long term equity can pretty closely predict the value of their property by applying the trend appreciation from their date of purchase (especially if that purchase was before 2001).

What's Normal?

OK chart-junkies...here's anther creation. I plotted the Case-Shiller value index for the 22 years the index has recorded data for South Florida. I split the chart up into:

"Normal" 1987 to 2000

"Boom" 2001 to 2006 and

"Bus..."; I mean "Change" 2007 to present.

This study would suggest that normal appreciation of single family homes is about 2.98% (the annual rate for 1987 to 2000). We experienced over 100% appreciation in just 5 years and have given back just under 65% in the last few years.

Case-Shiller Value Index

Much has been reported in the media about the positive housing trend suggested by the most recent release of Case-Shiller Index results. As with any national statistic, it is important to remember that real estate is a LOCAL enterprise and national trends will not necessarily apply to this market. Some markets in the country showed an increase in property value in May 2009 (the most-recent month reported by Case-Shiller). In the results for South Florida, values continue to decline but appear to be flattening out. Depicted here are Shiller's 'tiered price' index; you will note that moderate and lower priced single family homes seem to be making the turn while higher priced homes continue a fairly downward trajectory.

Mortgage Rates

“Bond yields rose slightly higher this week on market optimism that the economy may be stabilizing somewhat, and mortgage rates followed those yields,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “For instance, the Federal Reserve reported in its July 29th regional review that residential real estate markets in most of its districts remained weak, but many reported signs of improvement. In addition, it noted that entry-level homes continued to perform relatively well in part due to the first-time homebuyer tax credit.

Up a bit again...

Once again sensitive mortgage markets responded to hints of improved housing statistics with rates up just a bit over last week. Rates continue to be very favorable for qualified buyers interested in taking advantage of the great buys still out there.

'Gotta Love Fort Lauderdale

Cowabunga!
Thank you,

Jim Demarest, GRI
Keyes Company Realtors
(954) 647-4713

Sent by wireless PDA to avoid delay

Sales Analysis for June

Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) continue to drive unit sales in Broward County.

Monthly Value Change

According to data just released by Case-Shiller, prices on single family homes in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale market fell 2.08% in April. The attached chart plots the change in value from the peak of the market to present. Case-Shiller statistics are delayed two months to better ensure accuracy with transactions have been officially recorded in the public record.

Monthly Sales Analysis

The single family home market was once again dominated by forclosures and short sales in unit sales in May. Looking back however, the proportion of 'Distressed Sales' is shrinking compared to 'Arms Length' transactions.

Mortgage Rates at 7-Month High

“Mortgage rates followed the increase in bond yields this week as the May employment report showed that the economy lost fewer jobs than the market consensus had expected,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “Revisions to the jobs report for earlier months also showed the job loss was not as large as early estimates had indicated: March and April figures were revised to add an additional 82,000 jobs to the work force. As a result, federal funds futures rose after the report, signaling that the market expects the Federal Reserve may raise its benchmark rate sooner rather than later.

Ya' Just Can't Keep a Good Real Estate Market Down

The numbers keep pointing to a much healthier market from the moribund months of the last few years. Buyers are responding to a steep decline in property inventory and finally finding value in properties as prices return to a state of true-affordability. Over half of all sales are 'distressed' (either foreclosure or short sale) but most of us are seeing that a lot of the 'great buys' are sold already. It's still unclear what the impact of the predicted second-wave of foreclosures (driven more by the down economy/unemployment) will be but all indications are that it is a great time for qualified people to purchase real estate.

Details on $8,000 Tax Credit Loan at Closing

The details for the implementation of advance loans for the "$8.000 tax credit" are slowing filtering in. There had been conflicting information related to the down payment requirement for FHA loans. FHA mortgages require a 3.5 percent down payment, and the $8,000 tax credit cannot be used to override that requirement. Once the 3.5 percent down payment requirement has been met, however, the tax credit can be applied to additional costs, including a higher down payment, paying points to lower the mortgage rate, and/or closing costs. Lenders will treat the tax credit money as a second lien on the home until it’s paid back.



The best source to determine exactly how this credit can be applied to a transaction you're considering is your mortgage lender.

Catastrophic Insurance Plan

Rep. Ron Klein has re-introduced a plan to pool catastrophic property insurance risk among 30 or so states. This could help reduce high property insurance rates in Florida and other 'high-risk' areas of the country. The proposal is similar to one he authored two years ago but failed to gain traction due, in part, to opposition from the Bush Administration.

Rep. Klein's website offers details on the proposal and a link to the actual bill.

http://klein.house.gov/?sectionid=57&sectiontree=23,57&itemid=687

Thank you,

Jim Demarest, GRI
Keyes Company Realtors
(954) 647-4713

Sent by wireless PDA to avoid delay

County Assessments Updated by June 1

The county property appraiser has committed to having assessed values posted by the first of June. To check the value of your property use the Broward County website http://www.bcpa.net/ , click on 'Property Search' and follow the look up instructions.

What More Can I Say About INTEREST RATES?

Mortage rates continue to be a great aspect in this buyers' market. For example, the purchase of a $250,000 home at the interest rates in place last July would've cost about $250.00 more than a purchase today. That's an annual savings of $3,000.00 (a nice vacation...perhaps?)

Is the END Near?

There are a lot of interesting trends developing to suggest that the real estate market might be approaching a turning point toward a healthier state. The charts in this post present the inventory of available properties in terms of months' inventory. This is derived by dividing the number of properties on the market by the number of sales for the month. A 'normal' market has an inventory of 12 months or less. It is encouraging to see steady progress toward that level.

Sales Analysis for April

Once again distressed sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) dominated the numbers of single family homes sold in April. The number of distressed sales represented just under 61% of total sales in the month with dollar volume of 56.7%.

Better Economic News Lifts Mortgage Rates Slightly

This week provides a sign that the great mortgage rates we've been enjoying won't last forever. As we raise out of the recession, interest rates will follow. There are lots of great buys out there folks and these historically low interest rates coupled with a tax credit for those who qualify make this the year to BUY!